By Paul Giles

(Another topical submission from one of our regular contributors.)

Report on UK in a Changing Europe event, Wednesday 27 April 2022

This well-attended and extremely informative London conference included a presentation detailing the research supporting the “6% Brexit-specific food price increase” reported extensively in the press in the last week of April.

This was followed by a presentation by Professor Tiemo Fetzer of the University of Warwick.

Initially covering the reasons both for the 2016 Referendum and for the resulting majority vote for leave, it proceeded to show the effect of the vote on the UK’s regional economies, 2016 to 2019, versus a projection of the GDP growth that would have been achieved given unchanged EU integration plans.

His research showed that the UK regions that predominantly voted leave have since suffered the largest “regional GDP hits” resulting from the economic uncertainty following the leave vote. Whilst the average hit for 2019, for example, was £1,000 per capita, it was not evenly distributed across the regions.

Very relevant to Cornwall, one of his slides, (copy below), specifically compared the South West (53% Leave) hit with that for London (60% Remain). The red line represents the unchanged GDP projection, the dotted blue line the actual regional GDP growth outcome. It is stark that although both suffered initial hits, London had recovered by the end of 2019; the South West had not.

Whilst the South West hit amounted to 3.5% of regional GDP, London suffered only 1.6%.

Given the date range, the research cannot include the effects of the pandemic or the loss of EU grants to the South West. These charts will be updated shortly so will include more of the latest effects.

A summary of the full conference will be published in the next Cornwall for Europe newsletter.

Our Events – UK in a changing Europe (ukandeu.ac.uk)

Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of the Brexit-vote – Interactive visualization – Warwick Econometrics (brexitcost.org)

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