By Paul Giles
In recent CfE news, my latest chart of UK-EU goods exports, real values taken from the ONS, was published, updated to Q1 2026. It showed an estimated £155bn “hit” to date, giving, on the basis we can’t “vote it out”, a loss of perhaps £500bn by 2036.
The ONS have just published the equivalent Q2 2026 values. The updated chart is below. The slight Q1 uptick in values has not continued into Q2. We are still far short of the 2018 Q4 value and the cumulative loss to date has increased to £160bn. Every quarter that passes increases the certainty that the continued lower level of UK goods export values is not a temporary fluctuation but a long-term hit arising specifically from Brexit.
Given the ongoing annual shortfall of about £35bn, the cumulative loss will amount to over £500bn by the start of 2036, in the absence of specific action to reduce the friction UK business suffers when exporting goods to the EU under the TCA.
