By Paul Giles
In recent CfE news my latest chart of UK-EU goods exports, real values taken from the ONS, was updated to calendar 2025.
Under the intriguing title “What have the Omens done for us?” it showed an estimated £145 billion “hit” to date giving, on the basis we can’t “vote it out”, perhaps £500 billion by 2036.
The ONS have just published the same values for the first quarter of 2026 and the updated chart is below. We see a slight “uptick” on the final quarter of 2025 but the cumulative loss to date increases nevertheless to stand at £155 billion, with between £400 and £500 billion by 2036.
A catastrophic 2016 error brought back into focus by the 18 June Makerfield by-election!
Regarding (b), Figure 4 charts exports both to EU and Non-EU.
Again we see the 2022 “global trade boost”. Then, we see both EU and Non-EU goods exports falling but, significantly, EU falls significantly below non-EU from TCA implementation, indicative of the TCA having a specific negative impact on EU.
Figure 4
