By Chris Davey
Temperature data showing rapid warming in the past few decades, the latest data going up through 2023. According to NASA, Earth’s average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record since recordkeeping began in 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures. On top of that, the 10 most recent years have been the hottest. Source: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, and our own Met Office’s Hadley Centre – these are some of the many institutions keeping a “weather eye” on the developing climate breakdown. Another is the EU’s Copernicus service, whose report for February 2024 makes for worrying reading:
“February 2024 was the warmest February on record globally, with an average ERA5* surface air temperature of 13.54°C. In February 2024, it was wetter than average in Europe. Wind and heavy rainfall associated with several storms caused widespread damage and disruptions. Arctic sea ice extent was 2% below average, not as low as in most recent years. Antarctic sea ice reached its annual minimum monthly extent, the third lowest in the satellite data record.”
- Source: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
So the warmest February on record and, yes, we do seem to have had a fair amount of rain here recently, but that’s subjective, so it’s good to look at the data, and Carbon Brief agrees that winters here are getting warmer and wetter.
I hear some gardening presenters talking on TV about how changing climate will mean we’ll likely be growing different plants in our gardens as climate change happens. That makes it all sound rather interesting and maybe even exciting… we’ll be able to grow and harvest olives, and Mediterranean vegetables and fruits without the need for a greenhouse, and that’s good, surely?
Well, climate change is not good, especially for those in the global south, who have done the least to cause the problem, and will be (and are already) suffering the most. In fact, some commentators maintain that we should not use the expression “climate change” as it sounds rather bland – after all, change can be for the better. Also “crisis” is misleading; a crisis comes and goes – it’s something we can get past. No, what we face is not a crisis or an emergency – it’s an altered reality. “Climate breakdown” is far more descriptive – after all, seeing wildfires, floods and extraordinary storms, who can doubt that the breakdown of previous normality is already with us?
So we hear about adaptation to changes in the climate (oops, sorry, climate breakdown!), i.e. how we can change not only gardening, but flood defences, building design – lots of measures. Then again, there’s of course much discussion about mitigation measures, how we can slow or stop the rising planetary temperatures. This may be seen as a presentation of alternatives; if we focus on adaptation, is that a tacit acceptance that we can’t stop it, so we have to adapt? But mitigation should be the priority as the situation can get really dire in the decades to come, so we must combat it at all costs.
This is an example of a false dilemma – a situation that may be presented as “either this, or that”. But it really isn’t. We need each of these actions, and indeed it could be said that they are mutually supportive – the more we hear about the need for adaptation to worsening weather brought about by climate breakdown, the more people will understand that it is happening right now, and so will be more supportive of mitigation measures. You can have one without the other, but the best option is to have both, now.
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*ERA5 provides hourly estimates for a large number of atmospheric, ocean-wave and land-surface quantities.
